System and method for uncertainty quantification in reservoir simulation

摘要

A computer-implemented reservoir prediction system, method, and software are provided for quantifying uncertainty and evaluating production performance of a subterranean reservoir. A reservoir simulation model representing a subterranean reservoir and an associated distribution of input variables are provided. A plurality of polynomial chaos expansions is generated. Each polynomial chaos expansion is used to approximate a simulation output of the reservoir simulation model for the distribution of input variables. Deterministic coefficients of the polynomial chaos expansions are calculated using a sampling process, such as a quasi-Monte Carlo method using a low discrepancy sequence. An output variable, such as cumulative oil production, and associated output variable uncertainty are forecasted using the polynomial chaos expansions and the deterministic coefficients such that production performance of the subterranean reservoir can be evaluated.