Statistical method for determining baseline concentrations of atmospheric gases

摘要

The present invention relates to a method and apparatus for receiving raw data of atmospheric trace gases from outside, generating and processing time series data by arranging the raw data at predetermined time intervals, and for estimating atmospheric concentrations from the time series data using a statistical analysis algorithm The present invention relates to a method for calculating a background concentration of an atmospheric trace gas carried out by an environment predicting apparatus, wherein a linear increase tendency component of the atmospheric trace gas is extracted from the time series data, From the time-series data in which the linear increasing tendency component is separated, information of physical aspects of the predetermined period of the atmospheric trace gas and change information of the physical aspect information of the predetermined period with time, Combining these, A periodicity extracting step of extracting a periodicity of a predetermined period of the gas and a background concentration representing a natural fluctuation of a predetermined period of the atmospheric trace gas by re-adding the linear increase tendency component to the periodicity of the predetermined period And a step of calculating a background concentration. According to the present invention as described above, the background concentration is calculated on the basis of the natural variability extracted from the observation data of the atmospheric trace gases, thereby analyzing the time series data of various greenhouse gases and chemical components having periodic natural variability and calculating the background concentration There are advantages that can be applied. In addition, it is possible to quantitatively calculate the periodic variation of the natural volatility of the atmospheric trace gases extracted from the observed data over time, so that it is possible to calculate a statistically significant background concentration even if a missing section occurs in the observed data Do. Further, by precisely separating the increase tendency component with biennial change from the observation data, it is possible to calculate a more accurate background concentration by preventing the biennial change of the increase and the natural periodicity from being mixed and analyzed. In addition, by separating and eliminating the effects of local and long-distance transport sources included in the observed data, it is possible to more precisely calculate the background concentration of atmospheric trace gases and quantitatively estimate the effects of anthropogenic sources It will be used as a criterion and basis for policy decisions to regulate carbon emissions by regions. In addition, the present invention, which reproduces the background concentration through the periodic component separation of the natural variability included in the observed data, is currently being implemented in 430 global observatories, without adding any other criteria and method It is possible to calculate the background atmospheric concentration by applying the same method in a relatively simple and easy manner, and it is advantageous that it can be easily used by professional organizations, corporations, government agencies and general users.