Systems, devices, and methods are described for providing loudspeaker protection. An upstream loudspeaker model estimation component receives sensed electrical characteristics of a loudspeaker, estimates the impedance of the loudspeaker, fits an impedance model to the estimated impedance, and generates an excursion model of the loudspeaker and a gain change parameter from the estimated parameters of the impedance model. A downstream audio signal processing component utilizes the gain change parameter and the excursion model, or parameters thereof, to constrain the temperature of a voice coil of the loudspeaker and to limit a predicted excursion of the loudspeaker. The downstream audio signal processing component also utilizes processed signals associated with the constrained temperature and the limited excursion to suppress unwanted distortion for an output audio signal to be played back by the loudspeaker.
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