METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE RISK OF LATE FATAL CARDIAC AND CEREBROVASCULAR EVENTS AFTER A PLANNED ENDOVASCULAR MYOCARDIAL REVASCULARIZATION

摘要

FIELD: medicine.;SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, cardiology, assessment of the individual risk of developing late (more than 5 years after percutaneous coronary intervention, PCI) fatal cardiac and cerebrovascular events. Determine a fasting blood glucose level, functional class of heart failure (FCHF) according to NYHA before PCI, the presence or absence of initially associated atrial fibrillation, level of creatinine in the blood and glomerular filtration rate calculated by the formula CKD-EPI. Probability of the development of such late events after planned PCI is determined by the formula: P=e^F/(1+e^F), where e is the base of the natural logarithm (e=2.7183); F is a calculated value of the function. Wherein F_(x)=b₀+b₁⋅x₁+b₂⋅x₂+b₃⋅x₃+b₄⋅x₄+b₅⋅x₅, where x₁ – the level of serum creatinine after 1 g after PCI, mcmol/l; x₂ – the initial level of glucose in the blood on an empty stomach, mmol/l; x₃ – GFR 1 year after PCI, calculated by the formula CKD-EPI, ml/min/1.73 m²; x₄ – FCHF according to the NYHA classification before PCI; x₅ – the initial presence of atrial fibrillation in a patient: 2 – no; 1 – yes; b₀ – absolute term of an equation, constant (b₀=-18.534). Coefficients have the following meanings: b₁=0.132; b₂=-2.621; b₃=0.339; b₄=-2.887; b₅=3.763. If P0.71 value, a high risk of developing fatal cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events is predicted in 6 years after planned PCI. When P0.71, disease course is favorable.;EFFECT: method allows to predict the onset of fatal cardiovascular events in 1 year after PCI, is universal for all patients at the outpatient stage after a planned endovascular myocardial revascularization.;1 cl, 2 tbl