A movement path estimation device (4) that updates the existence probability and movement parameter probability distribution for a measurement target candidate at a measurement timing, on the basis of a movement parameter probability distribution prediction-value and an existence probability prediction-value for the measurement target candidate, such prediction value reflecting the disappearance and appearance of the measurement target candidate. The movement path estimation device (4) calculates a movement parameter estimation value representing the movement path of the measurement target, on the basis of the updated existence probability of the measurement target candidate and the movement parameter probability distribution.
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