Predictive Risk Modelling of Hospital Emergency Readmission, and Temporal Comorbidity Index Modelling Using Machine Learning Methods

摘要

This thesis considers applications of machine learning techniques in hospital emergency readmission and comorbidity risk problems, using healthcare administrative data. The aim is to introduce generic and robust solution approaches that can be applied to different healthcare settings. Existing solution methods and techniques of predictive risk modelling of hospital emergency readmission and comorbidity risk modelling arereviewed. Several modelling approaches, including Logistic Regression, Bayes Point Machine, Random Forest and Deep Neural Network are considered.Firstly, a framework is proposed for pre-processing hospital administrative data, including data preparation, feature generation and feature selection. Then, the Ensemble Risk Modelling of Hospital Readmission (ERMER) is presented, which is a generative ensemble risk model of hospital readmission model. After that, the Temporal-Comorbidity Adjusted Risk of Emergency Readmission (T-CARER) is presented for identifying very sick comorbid patients. A Random Forest and a Deep Neural Network are used to model risks of temporal comorbidity, operations and complications ofpatients using the T-CARER.The computational results and benchmarking are presented using real data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) with several samples across a ten-year period. The models select features from a large pool of generated features, add temporal dimensions into the models and provide highly accurate and precise models of problems with complex structures. The performances of all the models have been evaluated across different timeframes, sub-populations and samples, as well as previous models.