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How to yield abnormal return by replicating insider trades - A study on the Swedish stock market

机译:如何通过复制内幕交易产生异常收益 - 对瑞典股市的研究

摘要

The objective of the study is to verify if it is possible to replicate insider trades in order to yield an abnormal return. The objective will be reached by investigating previous research within the field of insider trading in order to examine under which condition replication of insider trades can be profitable for outsiders. Further, to determine if previous researchers have identified a theory where replication of insider trades actually is possible. The theory will then be tested on current market data from the AFXG index.The course of action is within accordance to an event study presented by MacKinlay (1997), where assumptions and conditions are based upon the meta-analysis of previous research; hence the data has been calculated with the adjusted market model. But also examined within a 90 days event window, where both single insider- as well as cluster transactions has been analyzed. Further the research qualifies as a quantitative study where a deductive procedure has been used. All data has been gathered from the AFGX index, where 40 random firms have been selected; five from each of the eight sectors. Lastly, the data has been statistically tested with the student t-test in order to examine if the result is of statistical significance.The result of the study shows that one can yield an abnormal return between 1,96% to 2,45% by replicating single insider trades. This is with 99,95% significance. By replicating insider cluster transactions one can also yield an abnormal return, however, the return is lower than for single insider trades and no significance were found. As for the meta-analysis of previous research, it was found that a security is to be held for approximately 90 days in order to achieve the desired positive effect of the insider trade. Further, small firms seems to yield the highest abnormal return, clusters transactions increases the possible abnormal return and when higher executives in different positions trade, a stronger buying signal for the stock is given.
机译:该研究的目的是验证是否有可能复制内幕交易以产生异常收益。通过研究内幕交易领域中的先前研究来达到该目的,以便检查在何种条件下内幕交易的复制可以为外人带来利润。此外,为了确定以前的研究人员是否已确定一种理论,在其中可以进行内部交易的复制。然后,该理论将根据AFXG指数的当前市场数据进行检验。采取的行动是根据MacKinlay(1997)提出的事件研究进行的,其中假设和条件基于对先前研究的荟萃分析;因此,数据是根据调整后的市场模型计算得出的。还要在90天的事件窗口内进行检查,其中对单个内部人员以及集群交易都进行了分析。此外,该研究符合使用演绎程序进行定量研究的资格。所有数据均来自AFGX指数,该指数选择了40家随机公司。八个部门各五个。最后,该数据已通过学生t检验进行了统计检验,以检验结果是否具有统计学意义。研究结果表明,到2013年,一个人可以产生1,96%至2,45%的异常收益率。复制单个内幕交易。这具有99.95%的意义。通过复制内幕集群交易,也可以产生异常收益,但是,该收益低于单个内幕交易的收益,并且未发现任何意义。至于先前研究的荟萃分析,发现要持有证券约90天,以实现内幕交易的理想积极效果。此外,小公司似乎产生最高的异常收益,集群交易增加了可能的异常收益,并且当不同职位的高管人员进行交易时,股票的买入信号会更强。

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