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Residential demand for electricity and gas in the short run : an econometric analysis

机译:短期内对电力和天然气的住宅需求:计量经济学分析

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摘要

Short-run residential demand equations for electricity and gas are estimated in this study. Short-run demand depends on the appliance stock in existence. Use of the appliance stock is a function of the price of fuel, income, and the weather. The major difference between this study and others explicitly using appliance stock data is that appliances are not aggregated into a single stock measure. Demand consists of the sum of the individual demands for energy for each fuel-burning appliance type. Consequently, different price, income, and weather elasticities are estimated for each use of the fuels. The data consist of annual observations for each state for the years 1960-1975. Most of the appliance stock data were developed by Data Resources, Inc. These are supplemented by appliance data developed for use in this study. Two different methods of pooling time-series and cross-section data, the random and fixed effects models, are used, and a specification test is performed to test for consistency of the random effects model estimates. The results are somewhat mixed. However, they do suggest directions for further research. Fairly reasonable estimates in terms of average energy consumption for each type of appliance are obtained. The aggregate price and income elasticities fall in the range found in previous work. Price elasticities appear to vary among the demands for fuel for different end uses, but the differences are not statistically significant. Income elasticities for the individual fuel uses are disappointing; they are often of the wrong sign and magnitude. The most reasonable results are obtained for the appliances which consume the most fuel. Further work most likely would benefit from aggregation of the small appliances, leaving only for estimation the coefficients of demand for the major users of fuel and the residual aggregate appliance stock.
机译:这项研究估计了短期居民用电和天然气的需求方程。短期需求取决于现有的设备库存。设备库存的使用是燃料价格,收入和天气的函数。这项研究与其他明确使用设备库存数据的研究之间的主要区别在于,设备未汇总到单个库存量度中。需求包括每种燃料燃烧设备类型对能量的单独需求之和。因此,对于每种燃料的使用,估计了不同的价格,收入和天气弹性。数据包括1960-1975年各州的年度观测值。大多数设备库存数据是由Data Resources,Inc.开发的。此外,还开发了供本研究使用的设备数据。使用两种不同的合并时间序列和横截面数据的方法,即随机效应模型和固定效应模型,并进行了规格测试以测试随机效应模型估计的一致性。结果有些好坏参半。但是,他们确实提出了进一步研究的方向。获得了每种设备平均能耗的合理估计。总价格和收入弹性落在先前工作中发现的范围内。不同最终用途对燃料的需求之间,价格弹性似乎有所不同,但差异在统计上并不显着。各种燃料用途的收入弹性令人失望;它们通常是错误的符号和大小。对于耗油量最大的设备,可以获得最合理的结果。小型设备的整合很可能会带来进一步的工作,而仅是为了估计主要燃料用户的需求系数和剩余的总设备库存。

著录项

  • 作者

    Werth Alix;

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  • 年度 1978
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_US
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