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Risk of endocrine disruption to fish in the Yellow River catchment in China assessed using a spatially explicit model

机译:利用空间直观模型评估了中国黄河流域鱼类对内分泌的破坏风险

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摘要

The global water availability assessment (GWAVA) model, incorporating regional water abstractions and reservoir information, was used to model the human-sourced steroid estrogens estrone (E1) and estradiol (E2) in the Yellow River catchment (China). The river flows in the main stem were calibrated using gauged flows. Following a review of Chinese data on estrogen discharge from a range of sewage treatment plants, low, median, and high discharge rates were identified and used as best, expected, and worst-case scenarios, respectively. For any given location, the temporal variation of modeled estrogen levels was summarized using the mean and upper 90th percentile, which is where the model predicts 90% of values would be below this concentration. The predicted means and 90th percentiles for E1 were comparable to previous E1 measurements reported in the river. For the whole catchment, only 19% (mean value) of the river system by length was predicted to exceed 1 ng/L E2 equivalents (EEQs) using expected estrogen sewage discharge. Only 3% of the network by length was predicted to exceed the dangerously high 10 ng/L EEQ when considering 90th percentile concentrations. The highest exposures were in the Fen and Wei tributaries. Endocrine disruption risk from estrogens was predicted to be minimal in the main stem. Only in the worst-case discharge scenario and 90th percentile predicted concentrations were the most downstream river reaches of the main stem predicted to be at risk. Reservoirs appeared to be helpful in reducing estrogen concentrations thanks to longer water residence facilitating biodegradation.
机译:利用全球水资源可用性评估(GWAVA)模型,结合区域取水量和水库信息,对黄河流域(中国)的人源性类固醇雌激素雌酮(E1)和雌二醇(E2)进行建模。使用测得的流量对主干中的河流流量进行了校准。在回顾了中国从一系列污水处理厂排放的雌激素的数据之后,分别确定了低,中和高排放率,并将它们分别用作最佳,预期和最坏情况。对于任何给定的位置,使用均值和第90个百分位数来概括建模的雌激素水平的时间变化,这是模型预测90%的值将低于此浓度的地方。 E1的预测均值和第90个百分位数与河流中先前报告的E1测量值相当。对于整个集水区,使用预期的雌激素污水排放量,预计只有19%(平均值)的河流系统超过1 ng / L E2当量(EEQ)。当考虑到第90个百分位浓度时,预计只有3%的网络长度超过危险的10 ng / L EEQ。暴露最多的地区是the和魏支流。雌激素的内分泌干扰风险预计在主茎中最小。仅在最坏情况下的排放情景和90%的预测浓度才是预计将要面临危险的主干的最下游河段。由于更长的水停留时间有利于生物降解,因此水库似乎有助于降低雌激素浓度。

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