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Business interruption impacts on the electric power system resilience to a total blackout of a terrorist attack of Los Angeles: Customer

机译:业务中断会影响电力系统对洛杉矶恐怖袭击事件完全停电的抵御能力:客户

摘要

Regional economies are highly dependent on electricity, thus making their power supply systems attractive terrorist targets. We estimate the largest category of economic losses from electricity outages-business interruption-in the context of a total blackout of electricity in Los Angeles. We advance the state of the art in the estimation of the two factors that strongly influence the losses: indirect effects and resilience. The results indicate that indirect effects in the context of general equilibrium analysis are moderate in size. The stronger factor, and one that pushes in the opposite direction, is resilience. Our analysis indicates that electricity customers have the ability to mute the potential shock to their business operations by as much as 86%. Moreover, market resilience lowers the losses, in part through the dampening of general equilibrium effects.
机译:区域经济高度依赖电力,因此使其电力供应系统成为恐怖分子的攻击目标。我们估计在停电的情况下,停电造成的最大经济损失类别-业务中断。我们在评估会严重影响损耗的两个因素方面提高了技术水平:间接影响和弹性。结果表明,在一般均衡分析中,间接影响的大小适中。回弹力是推动反向发展的更强因素。我们的分析表明,电力客户能够将其业务运营的潜在冲击降低多达86%。此外,市场弹性降低了损失,部分是通过抑制一般均衡效应。

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