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The impact of internal behavioural decision-making biases on South African collective investment scheme performance

机译:内部行为决策偏差对南非集体投资计划绩效的影响

摘要

Market efficiency, based on people acting rationally, has been the dominating finance theory for most of the 20th and 21st Century’s. This classical finance theory is based on assumptions that people are rational, they absorb all available information and maximise utility. This view is outdated; it has been shown that people are in fact irrational and that this could be the cause of anomalies in the market. Behavioural finance takes into account people, and their natural biases. Behavioural finance has integrated classical financial theories and psychological theories to illustrate the way in which irrational people can impact market efficiency. This research looks at the way collective investment scheme manager decision-making can impact market efficiency. Specifically the behavioural biases: overconfidence, over optimism, loss aversion and frame dependence and whether or not collective investment scheme performance is affected by these. This research was carried out using a questionnaire distributed directly to CIS managers and risk-adjusted returns were used in order to allow for comparative results. The results from the questionnaire show evidence that actively managing South African CIS managers do indeed suffer from overconfidence and loss aversion and they do not appear to suffer from frame dependence or over optimism in this research context. There was also evidence showing that managers who suffer from these biases also demonstrated lower investment returns. “The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” - Benjamin Graham
机译:在人们的理性行动基础上,市场效率一直是20世纪和21世纪大部分时间的主要金融理论。这种经典的金融理论基于这样的假设:人们是理性的,他们吸收所有可用的信息并最大化效用。这种观点已经过时了。事实证明,人们实际上是非理性的,这可能是市场异常的原因。行为金融考虑到了人及其自然偏见。行为金融学将古典金融理论和心理学理论相结合,以说明非理性人如何影响市场效率。这项研究着眼于集体投资计划经理的决策影响市场效率的方式。特别是行为偏见:过度自信,过度乐观,厌恶损失和依赖框架,以及集体投资计划的绩效是否受到这些偏见的影响。这项研究是使用直接分发给独联体管理人员的调查表进行的,并使用风险调整后的回报率来获得可比较的结果。调查问卷的结果表明,积极管理南非独联体管理人员的确确实遭受了过度自信和厌恶情绪的困扰,在此研究背景下,他们似乎没有遭受框架依赖性或过度乐观的困扰。还有证据表明,遭受这些偏见的经理也表现出较低的投资收益。 “投资者的主要问题,甚至是他最大的敌人,很可能是他本人。” -本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)

著录项

  • 作者

    Muller Stacey Leigh;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 English
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