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The relationship between financial development and economic growth in China : theory, empirical evidence and policy implications

机译:中国金融发展与经济增长的关系:理论,实证和政策含义

摘要

China began its current economic reform in the late 1970s. Since initiating its reforms, China has restructured its banking sector from the old Soviet-style and monopoly banking system. Meanwhile, since China launched its equity market in the early 1990s, selling new stocks and bonds appeared to be another significant channel for enterprises to raise investment funds. This thesis investigates the influence of financial development on economic growth in China mainly by examining the banking sector and stock market performance. This study employs a consolidated dataset covering 30 provinces for 18 years to conduct the panel technique. Meanwhile, a monthly dataset of 10 years has also been established to explore Granger-causality tests of the financial development and economic growth linkages. The main findings of the research are that at first China's economic growth is driven by the quickly accumulated capital stock attributed to the rapid increase of fixed assets investment while the contribution of labour input to GDP growth is statistically modest. Secondly, on aggregated level, the Granger-causality estimated result does not support the hypothesis that China's banking sector has been playing a leading role in the process of economic growth. Meanwhile, based on the introduction of five banking sector indicators, the panel estimation result indicated that China's banking sector has not statistically generated any contribution to the economic development. Thirdly, the Granger-causality estimated results concluded that economic growth is the Granger-cause of the stock market capitalisation while no causality relationship exists between stock market development and economic growth when in term of market liquidity and volatility. The causality relationship was finally testified on the basis of investigating the whole financial market, in which circumstance the estimated result further confirmed that financial development is the effect rather than cause of China's economic growth. Overall, the thesis presents enough evidence to support the argument that the financial sector development has been acting the demand- following role in economic growth process in the context of China.
机译:中国于1970年代后期开始了当前的经济改革。自改革以来,中国已从旧的苏联式垄断银行体系重组了银行部门。同时,自1990年代初中国启动股票市场以来,出售新股票和债券似乎是企业筹集投资资金的另一个重要渠道。本文主要通过考察银行业和股票市场表现来研究金融发展对中国经济增长的影响。这项研究采用覆盖30个省的18年综合数据集来进行面板技术。同时,还建立了每月10年的数据集,以探索金融发展与经济增长联系的格兰杰因果关系检验。研究的主要发现是,起初中国的经济增长是由固定资产投资快速增长所导致的快速积累的资本存量驱动的,而劳动力投入对GDP增长的贡献在统计上是适度的。其次,从总体上看,格兰杰因果关系估计结果不支持以下假设:中国银行业在经济增长过程中起着主导作用。同时,根据五项银行业指标的引入,面板估计结果表明,中国的银行业在统计上并未对经济发展做出任何贡献。第三,格兰杰因果关系估计结果得出结论,经济增长是股票市值的格兰杰因果,而就市场流动性和波动性而言,股市发展与经济增长之间不存在因果关系。在对整个金融市场进行调查的基础上,最终证明了因果关系,在这种情况下,估计结果进一步证实了金融发展是中国经济增长的结果而不是原因。总体而言,本文提供了足够的证据来支持这一论点,即在中国背景下,金融部门的发展一直在经济增长过程中扮演着需求跟随的角色。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ren Jia;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2006
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 English
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