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Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies

机译:测试四个撒哈拉以南非洲经济体的财务主导,出口导向和进口增长假设

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摘要

This study carries out an empirical examination of the finance-led, export-led and import-led growth hypothesis for four of the largest Sub-Saharan African economies namely South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya. Within a multivariate Vector-Auto Regressive (VAR) framework, the concept of Granger causality is employed to determine the direction of causation between exports and output, duly taking into account the stationarity properties of the time series data. With further substantiation from impulse response function and variance decomposition, the empirical evidence shows (i) finance-led, export-led and import-led growth in South Africa and Kenya, (ii) finance-led and imports-led growth in Nigeria, and (iii) only finance-led growth in Ghana.These four Sub-Saharan African nations, with the help of reforms, have experienced expanding exports, increased financial development and accelerated GDP growth rates. Yet, these have yielded varying degrees of success. The agenda for economic growth is a long one in Sub-Saharan Africa. Reforms would require preconditions in the wider economic and political environment, without which they will be ineffective or even counterproductive.
机译:这项研究对撒哈拉以南非洲四个最大经济体即南非,尼日利亚,加纳和肯尼亚的金融主导,出口主导和进口主导的增长假设进行了实证检验。在多元向量-自动回归(VAR)框架内,格兰杰因果关系的概念被用来确定出口与产出之间因果关系的方向,同时充分考虑了时间序列数据的平稳性。通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的进一步证实,经验证据表明:(i)南非和肯尼亚的金融主导,出口主导和进口主导的增长;(ii)尼日利亚的金融主导和进口主导的增长,这四个撒哈拉以南非洲国家在改革的帮助下,出口不断扩大,金融发展加快,GDP增长率加快。然而,这些取得了不同程度的成功。在撒哈拉以南非洲,经济增长议程很长。改革将需要在更广泛的经济和政治环境中的前提条件,否则,这些前提条件将无效,甚至适得其反。

著录项

  • 作者

    Evans Olaniyi;

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  • 年度 2013
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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