首页> 外文OA文献 >Financial Time Series Forecasting by Developing a Hybrid Intelligent System
【2h】

Financial Time Series Forecasting by Developing a Hybrid Intelligent System

机译:基于混合智能系统的金融时间序列预测

代理获取
本网站仅为用户提供外文OA文献查询和代理获取服务,本网站没有原文。下单后我们将采用程序或人工为您竭诚获取高质量的原文,但由于OA文献来源多样且变更频繁,仍可能出现获取不到、文献不完整或与标题不符等情况,如果获取不到我们将提供退款服务。请知悉。

摘要

The design of models for time series forecasting has found a solid foundation on statistics and mathematics. On this basis, in recent years, using intelligence-based techniques for forecasting has proved to be extremely successful and also is an appropriate choice as approximators to model and forecast time series, but designing a neural network model which provides a desirable forecasting is the main concern of researchers. For this purpose, the present study tries to examine the capabilities of two sets of models, i.e., those based on artificial intelligence and regressive models. In addition, fractal markets hypothesis investigates in daily data of the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. Finally, in order to introduce a complete design of a neural network for modeling and forecasting of stock return series, the long memory feature and dynamic neural network model were combined. Our results showed that fractal markets hypothesis was confirmed in TSE; therefore, it can be concluded that the fractal structure exists in the return of the TSE series. The results further indicate that although dynamic artificial neural network model have a stronger performance compared to ARFIMA model, taking into consideration the inherent features of a market and combining it with neural network models can yield much better results.
机译:时间序列预测模型的设计为统计和数学奠定了坚实的基础。在此基础上,近年来,已证明使用基于智能的技术进行预测非常成功,并且是作为近似器来建模和预测时间序列的适当选择,但是设计提供理想预测的神经网络模型是主要的关注研究人员。为此,本研究试图检验两组模型的功能,即基于人工智能和回归模型的模型。此外,分形市场假设在德黑兰证券交易所(TSE)指数的每日数据中进行调查。最后,为了介绍用于股票收益序列建模和预测的神经网络的完整设计,将长记忆特征和动态神经网络模型相结合。我们的结果表明,分形市场假说在TSE中得到了证实。因此,可以得出结论,分形结构存在于TSE系列的回归中。结果进一步表明,尽管动态人工神经网络模型比ARFIMA模型具有更强的性能,但考虑到市场的固有特征并将其与神经网络模型结合可以产生更好的结果。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号