Simulation game for future mobility – support tool for the discussion process about scenarios of future mobility in SUMP processes

摘要

In order to work out and draw up smart and sustainable mobility strategies, it is essential to predict the development of transport demand. This development depends on many factors so an estimation is quite complex. Therefore transport models are often used as a basis for the decision-making- and planning-process. There is a wide range of expected developments, so in order to describe future transport developments, it is helpful to work with various basic development scenarios in these models to calculate future developments. The respective topics for future mobility scenarios are often highly complex and the stakeholders as participants of the planning process have different experiences considering these topics. For this discussion the Institute for Urban and Transport Planning of RWTH Aachen University has developed the simulation game for future mobility as a guide, which uses numerous factors to illustrate the expected developments of transport demand. This game aims to involve all stakeholders in the development of future mobility scenarios through an interactive game. The goal is firstly to illustrate different influential parameters for mobility and transport demand and their possible developments as well as to evaluate the results by identifying accordance and differences in the different expectations of the stakeholders. Then, on the basis of systematical analysis of the individual results of the game, it is possible to pre-structure scenarios for the use in transport models and guide the process.udThe basis of the simulation game is a schematical illustration of a city, consisting of 11 areas. Each area represents a functional part of a city (e. g. industry) or a mobility and transport offer (e. g. public transport) and ist equipped with one or two question marks. Each question mark corresponds with one mobility-related issue. In the context of this game, the following three categories are considered more closely: general conditions, lifestyle and mobility/transport offers. In these different categories, general conditions and discussed measures are represented. The general conditions with influence on transport behavior in 2050 deal with the population’s development, population structure and the development of the job market. Considering changing lifestyles, the handling of Social Media and its possible effects on activity behavior, as well as the influence of online commerce on shopping behavior are outlined in the area lifestyle. In the category of mobility and transport offers, possible developments in the field of electric mobility, the changes of transport costs and a stronger interlinking of different transport modes are introduced. For each of the 15 issues within the areas the game presents two or three different theses as possible developments of the respective issue in the future. One area after the other, the player can choose the thesis, which, he thinks, is most likely and plausible. In the context of a planning process as for example when drawing up a SUMP, the introduced simulation game makes it possible to create a basis for all participants at the beginning of the scenario development. At the same time, the discussion process can be guided based on the evaluation of the game by, for example extracting those theses with the greatest deviation for further discussion and eventually rating them in different scenarios according to their effects, and on the other hand using the theses which are seen equally between the different stakeholders as basis for several scenarios. Through this game the access to the complex topic of transport forecast can be simplified for stakeholders with different background so a better understanding of the scenario circumstances can be reached and through that a higher acceptance.