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Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt-dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

机译:中亚塔里木河以雪和冰川融化为主的流域径流趋势的归因

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摘要

Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period 1957–2004. This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.
机译:在1957-2004年期间,塔里木河(中亚)的水源汇流的观测流量增加了约30%。这项研究旨在评估这些流量趋势在多大程度上可归因于气温或降水的变化。分析包括使用多元线性回归的基于数据的方法和使用水文模型的基于模拟的方法。水文模型考虑了冰川面积和地表高程的变化。使用多目标优化算法对其进行了校准,该算法具有基于冰川质量平衡以及排放量的每日和年际变化的校准标准。冰川几何形状,温度和降水变化对单个总体流量趋势的贡献是通过使用具有恒定冰川几何形状且温度和降水时间序列呈下降趋势的模拟实验进行评估的。结果表明,观测到的水流变化与温度和降水的变化一致。在Sari-Djaz流域,温度升高和相关的冰川融化增加被确定为主要驱动因素,而在Kakshaal流域,温度升高和降水增加均起主要作用。比较这两种方法,基于模拟的方法的优势在于它基于水文模型中实现的基于过程的关系,而不是基于回归模型中的统计链接。但是,基于数据的方法受模型参数和结构不确定性的影响较小,并且通常可以快速应用。建议对两种方法进行补充应用。

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