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The Political Economy of Reducing the United States Dollar's Role as a Global Reserve Currency

机译:降低美元作为全球储备货币角色的政治经济学

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摘要

Many have argued that the major source of the existing global macroeconomic imbalances are the twin deficits of the United States (US). However, there is still a debate about whether the global imbalances indeed pose a significant threat to the world economy. This matter is settled by arguing that the global imbalances acted as a "handmaiden" to the 2008 financial crisis. One way to reduce global imbalances is to reform the international monetary system and reduce the role of the US dollar as a reserve currency. Robert Triffin was one of those critical of this "exorbitant" privilege granted to the US, which makes it both a system maker and privilege taker. The Triffin Dilemma captures the fundamental instability that underlies the dollar reserve system. However, there are major obstacles to this proposal. Some analysts including Triffin cited the US security umbrella as the primary reason the US and its major allies would want to retain the role of the dollar in global trade and finance despite the underlying inequities in the system. This is related to the imbalance in global governance which is largely US-centric. The imbalance in global governance is also reflected in the dominance of the US financial system brought about by the "first-mover advantage". Because of the inertia brought about by the imbalance in global governance, economic arguments to reform the international monetary system are likely to be trumped by political reality. The paper analyzes whether current efforts in East Asia in terms of financial and monetary cooperation and rebalancing of economic growth could significantly mitigate the adverse impacts of a global system that will still be dominated by the US dollar in the foreseeable future. It also explains why the People's Republic of China (PRC) is unlikely to make significant unilateral adjustments to reduce global macroeconomic imbalances.
机译:许多人认为,现有的全球宏观经济失衡的主要根源是美国的双赤字。但是,关于全球失衡是否确实对世界经济构成重大威胁仍存在争议。通过争辩说全球失衡是2008年金融危机的“代名词”来解决这一问题。减少全球失衡的一种方法是改革国际货币体系,减少美元作为储备货币的作用。罗伯特·特里芬(Robert Triffin)是批判授予美国这种“过高”特权的人之一,这使其既成为系统制造商又是特权接受者。特里芬困境捕捉到了美元储备体系的基本动荡。但是,该提案存在主要障碍。包括特里芬在内的一些分析家认为,美国安全伞是美国及其主要盟国希望保留美元在全球贸易和金融中的作用的主要原因,尽管该体系存在潜在的不平等现象。这与很大程度上以美国为中心的全球治理失衡有关。全球治理的不平衡还反映在“先发优势”所带来的美国金融体系的主导地位上。由于全球治理不平衡带来的惯性,改革国际货币体系的经济论点可能会被政治现实所压倒。本文分析了东亚目前在金融和货币合作以及经济增长再平衡方面的努力是否可以大大减轻全球体系的不利影响,在可预见的将来,全球体系仍将以美元为主导。这也解释了为什么中国不太可能进行重大的单方面调整以减少全球宏观经济失衡。

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    Yap Josef T.;

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  • 年度 2011
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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