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From Washington to post-Washington? Consensus policies and divergent developments in Latin America and Asia

机译:从华盛顿到华盛顿后?拉丁美洲和亚洲的共识政策和不同的发展

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摘要

Most Latin American countries have made considerable progress in implementing the core recommendations of the Washington Consensus. The comparison with fast-growing Asian countries shows, however, that higher and more broadbased growth can only be achieved with more comprehensive reforms which contain four important additional elements. First, external stability should be given priority in order to support export activities. More flexible exchange rates and the prudent use of capital market policies could stabilize real exchange rates as well as capital inflows. At the same time, the need for capital inflows could be reduced by increasing domestic savings through higher government savings and efforts to overcome the segmentation of domestic capital markets. Second, the adoption of best-practice technologies should be encouraged in order to accelerate technical progress. Measures which could ease the transfer of technology are the use of FDI as a source of technology for export-oriented sectors and human capital formation with an emphasis on technical and job-related skills. More flexible labor markets could bring higher employment levels, which is important for mobilizing resources through learning-on-the-job. Third, poverty should be alleviated and inequality be reduced in order to broaden the participation of the population in economic activities and to facilitate the establishment of small and medium-sized firms. The highest priority should be given to a strong basic education system, labor market reforms which facilitate the migration from the informal sector to higher-paid formal employment, and a comprehensive titling program for land and property which allows access to the formal credit market. Fourth, the formal institutional framework should be reliable in order to guarantee a certain degree of predictability. Only then investors will have an incentive to undertake projects with a longer gestation period. In addition, the establishment of informal institutions (social capital) should be encouraged in order to reduce transaction costs. This can best be achieved indirectly by means of targeted support for the poor which reduces the extent of social exclusion and polarization, a higher level of education which raises the acceptance of norms transcending narrow kin groups, and better formal institutions which constrain the ability of the government to act arbitrarily. Taken together, export orientation, technology transfer, poverty alleviation, and institution-building could allow developing a more flexible economic structure and a more dynamic performance of investment and exports, which would in turn be reflected in higher and more equitable growth. In order to start such a process, the countries need to design their own strategies. This is because most reforms, especially institution-building, have to be tailored to domestic conditions. The poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs), which have to be set up by highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) in order to get debt reductions, could provide a blueprint for the development of national reform strategies.
机译:大多数拉丁美洲国家在执行《华盛顿共识》的核心建议方面取得了可观的进展。然而,与快速增长的亚洲国家的比较表明,只有通过包含四个重要附加要素的更全面的改革,才能实现更高,更广泛的增长。首先,应优先考虑外部稳定,以支持出口活动。更加灵活的汇率和对资本市场政策的审慎使用可以稳定实际汇率以及资本流入。同时,可以通过增加政府储蓄和克服国内资本市场分割的努力来增加国内储蓄,从而减少资本流入的需求。第二,应鼓励采用最佳实践技术,以加快技术进步。可以简化技术转让的措施是利用外国直接投资作为面向出口部门和人力资本形成的技术来源,重点是技术和与工作有关的技能。更加灵活的劳动力市场可以带来更高的就业水平,这对于通过在职学习调动资源至关重要。第三,应减轻贫困,减少不平等现象,以扩大人民对经济活动的参与,并促进中小型企业的建立。应将最优先的事项放在强大的基础教育体系,促进从非正规部门向高薪正规就业的迁移的劳动力市场改革以及允许进入正规信贷市场的全面的土地和财产所有权计划上。第四,正式的体制框架应该可靠,以保证一定程度的可预测性。只有这样,投资者才有动机进行更长期限的项目。此外,应鼓励建立非正式机构(社会资本),以减少交易成本。最好的间接解决办法是有针对性地支持穷人,减少社会排斥和两极分化的程度;提高教育水平,提高对超越狭窄亲属群体的规范的接受;以及更好的正规机构,这限制了穷人的能力。政府采取任意行动。总体而言,出口导向,技术转让,减贫和体制建设可以使经济结构更加灵活,投资和出口的表现更有活力,而这又将体现在更高和更公平的增长中。为了启动这样一个过程,这些国家需要设计自己的战略。这是因为大多数改革,尤其是体制建设,必须针对国内情况进行调整。为了减轻债务,必须由重债穷国(HIPC)制定的减贫战略文件(PRSP)可以为制定国家改革战略提供蓝图。

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