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A generalized method for detecting abnormal returns and changes in systematic risk

机译:一种检测异常收益和系统风险变化的通用方法

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摘要

The authors generalize traditional event-study techniques to allow for event-induced parameter shifts, shifting variances, and firm-specific event periods. Their method, which nests traditional methods, also permits systematic risk to change gradually during the event period and exit the period at higher or lower levels. The authors use their approach to study 132 banks that acquired other institutions between 1989 and 1995. The authors find a significant change in the systematic risk of the acquiring firms, significant ARCH effects, and an event period that ends before the date of the announcement. None of these results is detectable using conventional methods. These results imply that (1) event studies that cannot account for information leakage may be biased, and (2) changes in systematic risk can occur in the absence of abnormal returns, and (3) regulators, investors and bank managers must evaluate each acquisition on its own merits; reliance on averages can mask important distinctions across acquisitions.
机译:作者对传统的事件研究技术进行了概括,以允许事件引起的参数移动,变化方差和企业特定的事件周期。他们的方法继承了传统方法,也允许系统风险在事件期间逐渐变化,并在较高或较低级别退出该时间段。作者使用他们的方法研究了1989年至1995年之间收购了其他机构的132家银行。作者发现,收购公司的系统风险,重大的ARCH效应以及在公告日期之前结束的事件期间发生了重大变化。使用常规方法无法检测到这些结果。这些结果表明,(1)不能解释信息泄漏的事件研究可能会产生偏差,(2)在没有异常收益的情况下可能发生系统风险的变化,并且(3)监管机构,投资者和银行经理必须对每次收购进行评估根据自己的优点;依靠平均值可以掩盖收购之间的重要区别。

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