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Defusing Bertrand's paradox

机译:化解贝特朗的悖论

摘要

The classical interpretation of probability together with the Principle of Indifference are formulated in terms of probability measure spaces in which the probability is given by the Haar measure. A notion called Labeling Invariance is defined in the category of Haar probability spaces, it is shown that Labeling Invariance is violated and Bertrand's Paradox is interpreted as the very proof of violation of Labeling Invariance. It is shown that Bangu's attempt [2] to block the emergence of Bertrand's Paradox by requiring the re-labeling of random events to preserve randomness cannot succeed non-trivially. A non-trivial strategy to preserve Labeling Invariance is identified and it is argued that, under the interpretation of Bertrand's Paradox suggested in the paper, the paradox does not under-udmine either the Principle of Indifference or the classical interpretation and is in complete harmony with how mathematical probability theory is used in the sciences to model phenomena; it is shown in particular that violation of Labeling Invariance does not entail that labeling of random events affects the probabilities of random events. It also is argued however that the content of the Principleudof Indifference cannot be specified in such a way that it can establish the classical interpretation of probability as descriptively accurate or predictively successful.
机译:对概率的经典解释以及无差异原理是根据概率度量空间来表述的,其中概率由Haar度量给出。在Haar概率空间的类别中定义了一个称为标签不变性的概念,这表明违反了标签不变性,并且Bertrand悖论被解释为违反标签不变性的证明。结果表明,Bangu的尝试[2]通过要求对随机事件进行重新标记以保留随机性来阻止Bertrand悖论的尝试不可能成功。确定了一种保留标签不变性的非平凡策略,并认为,根据本文建议的Bertrand悖论的解释,该悖论不会削弱“冷漠原则”或经典解释,并且是完全和谐的科学中如何使用数学概率论对现象进行建模;特别表明,违反标记不变性并不意味着标记随机事件会影响随机事件的概率。然而,也有人认为,不能以无差别的原则 udof的内容来指定它可以建立对概率的经典解释为描述准确或预测成功的方式。

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