L'efficacité de la planification de type soviétique face à la stagflation mondiale

摘要

The Efficiency of the Soviet-Type Economic Planning under Conditions of World Stagflation. After a very short definition of the Soviet-Type Economic Planning (SEP) and of World Stagflation (WS), I shall try to analyse the capacity of the SEP to optimize the economic evolution of countries concerned under the constraints of WS. Apparently the highly centralized system of decision-taking and the almost total separation of domestic economy from World markets should procure to a SEP economy a high degree of independence. The historical example of the rapid growth of the Soviet economy during the World depression of the 1930s should not be forgotten. But the international economic interdependence nowadays is much stronger than it was then and since that time the SEP has been extended to countries which are much smaller and much less selfsufficient than the U.S.S.R. in the 1930s. Moreover, the economic implications of stagflation are much more intricate and insidious than those of the Great Depression and the social and political conditions accompanying these two historical events are not at all the same. In the 1930s the Soviet system could survive a dramatic deterioration of the living standard of a large majority of population. In the 1980's this probably would not be feasible even in the U.S.S.R. and certainly not in most other Eastern countries. Therefore the strategy of isolation from World economic trends must be replaced by a strategy of adaptation. The problem is, however, to determine if, and to what extent, the SEP is able to apply the latter without a very deep change of its main characteristics. The rest of the paper will deal with a precise analysis of necessary changes.