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Flood forecasting and warning system development its reliability and operational ability

机译:洪水预报预警系统的可靠性和运行能力

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摘要

Quality of operational flood forecasting system (FFS) is the essential component for efficient response to the foreseen flood events. The thesis is describing why FFS is needed, how does it help, what are its parts and how does it influence the response process. But the basic question is how well the results are. In the last ten years, Slovenian floods demanded extremely high costs. To address this costly water power the development of FFS is part of nonstructural measures to reduce the flood impact. Achieving good forecasts is mostly connected to hard work in verification and learning from the models results. Therefore, it is crucial to define the methodology for operational control of the model formation to ensure continuity and improvement of its operation. FFS consists of several parts, which are interconnected and interdependent. The system requires and operational monitoring network, hydrologic model, hydrodynamic model, meteorological models, visualization and presentation of the results and last but not least the analysis of quality, efficiency, accuracy, reliability and skill. Methods of analysis are very alike and each provides target identification and presentation of the shortcomings of the results. In the analysis, deterministic and continuous analyses were used. As most efficient was proven the relative operating characteristics (ROC), which shows the relative probability of correct prediction. Verification indexes as Nash-Sucliffe efficiency (NSE) or Kling-Gubta efficiency (KGE) are seen as more useful in calibration process and binary success indexes are hydrologically seen often more appropriate for uniform discharge distributions.
机译:业务洪水预报系统(FFS)的质量是有效响应可预见的洪水事件的重要组成部分。本文描述了为什么需要FFS,它如何帮助,它的组成部分以及它如何影响响​​应过程。但是基本的问题是结果如何。在过去的十年中,斯洛文尼亚的洪水要求付出极高的代价。为了解决这一昂贵的水力发电问题,FFS的开发是减少洪水影响的非结构性措施的一部分。获得良好的预测主要与验证工作和从模型结果中学习有关。因此,定义模型形成的操作控制方法以确保其连续性和改进至关重要。 FFS由相互联系和相互依存的几个部分组成。该系统需要运行监控网络,水文模型,水动力模型,气象模型,结果的可视化和表示,最后但并非最不重要的是对质量,效率,准确性,可靠性和技能的分析。分析方法非常相似,每种方法都可以进行目标识别并显示结果的缺点。在分析中,使用了确定性和连续性分析。事实证明,最有效的是相对操作特性(ROC),它显示正确预测的相对概率。验证指标如纳什-苏克利夫效率(NSE)或克林-古柏塔效率(KGE)在标定过程中被认为更有用,而二进制成功指标在水文学上通常更适合于均匀的排放量分布。

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    Pogačnik Nejc;

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