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The potential impact on atmospheric ozone and temperature of increasing trace gas concentrations

机译:痕量气体浓度增加对大气臭氧和温度的潜在影响

摘要

The response of the atmosphere to emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other chlorocarbons, and to increasing concentrations of other radiatively active trace gases such as CO2, CH4, and N2O is calculated by a coupled chemical-radiative transport one-dimensional model. It is shown that significant reductions in the ozone concentration and in the temperature are expected in the upper stratosphere as a result of increasing concentrations of active chlorine produced by photodecomposition of the CFCs. The ozone content is expected to increase in the troposphere, as a consequence of increasing concentrations of methane and nitrogen oxides. Due to enhanced greenhouse effects, the Earth's surface should warm up by several degrees. The amplitude and even the sign of future changes in the ozone column are difficult to predict as they are strongly scenario-dependent. An early detection system to prevent noticeable ozone changes as a result of increasing concentrations of source gases should thus be based on a continuous monitoring of the ozone amount in the upper stratosphere rather than on measurements of the ozone column only. Measurements of NOx, Clx, and HOx are also required for unambiguous trend detection and interpretation.
机译:通过耦合的化学辐射传输一维模型,可以计算出大气对氯氟烃(CFC)和其他氯烃的排放,以及对其他辐射活性痕量气体(如CO2,CH4和N2O)浓度升高的响应。结果表明,由于CFC的光分解产生的活性氯浓度增加,预计平流层上部的臭氧浓度和温度将显着降低。由于甲烷和氮氧化物的浓度增加,预计对流层中的臭氧含量会增加。由于温室效应的增强,地球表面应该变暖几度。臭氧柱的幅度甚至未来变化的迹象很难预测,因为它们与情景密切相关。因此,为防止由于原料气体浓度增加而引起的明显臭氧变化的早期检测系统,应基于对平流层上部臭氧量的连续监测,而不是仅基于臭氧塔的测量。对于明确的趋势检测和解释,还需要测量NOx,Clx和HOx。

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  • 作者

    Derudder A.; Brasseur G.;

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  • 年度 1987
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