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Using the Storm Water Management Model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

机译:使用暴雨水管理模型预测城市源流对气候和土地覆盖变化的水文响应

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摘要

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better understand their effects on streams is important for developing and implementing strategies to mitigate potentially negative effects. In this study, stream flow was monitored during April-November (2011 and 2012), and the data were used to apply the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for five urban watersheds in central Iowa, USA, representing a gradient of percent impervious surface (IS, ranging from 5.3 to 37.1%). A set of three scenarios was designed to quantify hydrological responses to independent and combined effects of climate change (18% increase in precipitation), and land cover change (absolute increases between 5.2 and 17.1%, based on separate projections of impervious surfaces for the five watersheds) for the year 2040 compared to a current condition simulation. An additional set of three scenarios examined stream response to different distributions of land cover change within a single watershed. Hydrological responses were quantified using three indices: unit-area peak discharge, flashiness (R-B Index; Richards-Baker Index), and runoff ratio. Stream hydrology was strongly affected by watershed percent IS. For the current condition simulation, values for all three indices were five to seven times greater in the most developed watershed compared to the least developed watershed. The climate change scenario caused a 20.8% increase in unit-area peak discharge on average across the five watersheds compared to the current condition simulation. The land cover change scenario resulted in large increases for all three indices: 49.5% for unit-area peak discharge, 39.3% for R-B Index, and 73.9% for runoff ratio, on average, for the five watersheds. The combined climate and land cover change scenario resulted in slight increases on average for R-B Index (43.7%) and runoff ratio (74.5%) compared to the land cover change scenario, and a substantial increase, on average, in unit area peak discharge (80.1%). The scenarios for different distributions of land cover change within one watershed resulted in changes for all three indices, with an 18.4% increase in unit-area peak discharge for the midstream scenario, and 17.5% (downstream) and 18.1% (midstream) increases in R-B Index, indicating sensitivity to the location of potential additions of IS within a watershed. Given the likelihood of increased precipitation in the future, land use planning and policy tools that limit expansion of impervious surfaces (e.g. by substituting pervious surfaces) or mitigate against their impacts (e.g. by installing bioswales) could be used to minimize negative effects on streams.
机译:溪流是城市景观中的自然特征,可以为城市居民提供生态系统服务。然而,由于多种人为影响,包括人口增加和相关的不透水表面积增加,以及气候变化加速,城市溪流承受着越来越大的压力。预期这些变化并更好地了解其对流的影响的能力对于制定和实施缓解潜在负面影响的策略至关重要。在这项研究中,对4月至11月(2011年和2012年)的水流进行了监测,并将这些数据用于美国爱荷华州中部的五个城市流域的雨水管理模型(SWMM),代表了不透水百分比的梯度(IS,范围从5.3到37.1%)。设计了三种情景,根据五种不透水面的单独预测,量化了对气候变化的独立和综合影响(降水增加18%)和土地覆盖变化(绝对增加5.2%至17.1%)的水文响应。流域)与当前状态模拟进行比较。一组额外的三个场景检查了河流对单个流域内不同土地覆盖变化分布的响应。使用以下三个指标对水文响应进行量化:单位面积的峰值流量,浮游性(R-B指数; Richards-Baker指数)和径流比。流域水文受到分水岭百分比IS的强烈影响。对于当前状态模拟,与最不发达的流域相比,最发达的流域的所有三个指标的值高五到七倍。与当前条件模拟相比,气候变化情景导致五个流域的单位面积高峰排放量平均增加20.8%。土地覆盖变化的情况导致所有三个指数均大幅增加:五个流域的平均面积峰值排放量为49.5%,R-B指数为39.3%,径流比为73.9%。与土地覆盖变化情景相比,气候和土地覆盖变化情景相结合,RB指数的平均值(43.7%)和径流比(74.5%)略有增加,平均单位面积峰值排放量显着增加( 80.1%)。一个流域内土地覆盖变化的不同分布方案导致了所有三个指数的变化,中游方案的单位面积高峰排放量增加了18.4%,而中游方案的单位面积高峰排放量增加了17.5%(下游)和18.1%(中游) RB指数,指示对分水岭内可能的IS附加位置的敏感性。鉴于未来降水增加的可能性,可以使用土地使用规划和政策工具来限制不透水表面的扩展(例如通过替代透水表面)或减轻其影响(例如通过安装生物通道),以最大程度地减少对河流的负面影响。

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