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Understanding the effect of disturbance from selective felling on the carbon dynamics of a managed woodland by combining observations with model predictions

机译:通过将观测结果与模型预测相结合,了解选择性砍伐对森林人工林碳动态的影响

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摘要

The response of forests and terrestrial ecosystems to disturbance is an important process in the global carbon cycle in the context of a changing climate. blackThis study focuses on the effect of selective felling (thinning) at a managed forest site. Previous statistical analyses of eddy covariance data at the study site had found that disturbance from thinning resulted in no significant change to net ecosystem carbon uptake. In order to better understand the effect of thinning on carbon fluxes we use the mathematical technique of four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a compelling alternative to more common statistical analyses of flux data as it allows for the combination of many different sources of data, with the physical constraints of a dynamical model, to find an improved estimate blackof the state of a system. We develop blacknew observation operators to assimilate daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange observations with a daily time-step model, increasing blackobservations available by a factor of 4.25.ududOur results support previous analyses, with a predicted net ecosystem carbon uptake for the year 2015 of 426 ± 116g C m−2 for the unthinned forest and 420 ± 78g C m−2 for the thinned forest despite a model-predicted reduction in gross primary productivity of 337g C m−2. We show that this is likely due to reduced ecosystem respiration post-disturbance compensating for a reduction in gross primary productivity. This supports the theory of an upper limit of forest net carbon uptake due to the magnitude of ecosystem respiration scaling with gross primary productivity.
机译:在气候变化的背景下,森林和陆地生态系统对干扰的响应是全球碳循环中的重要过程。黑色本研究的重点是在被管理的森林中进行选择性砍伐(稀疏)的效果。研究地点之前对涡度协方差数据的统计分析发现,稀疏造成的干扰不会导致生态系统净碳吸收量发生显着变化。为了更好地了解稀化对碳通量的影响,我们使用了多维变分数据同化的数学技术。数据同化为通量数据的更常见的统计分析提供了一种引人注目的替代方法,因为它允许将许多不同的数据源与动力学模型的物理约束结合起来,以找到改进的系统状态估计值。我们开发了blacknew观测算子,以通过每日时间步模型吸收白天和晚上的净生态系统交换观测值,使可用的黑观测增加了4.25倍。 ud ud尽管模型预测的总初级生产力下降了337g C m-2,但2015年未稀疏林为426±116g C m-2,而间伐林为420±78g C m-2。我们表明,这很可能是由于扰乱后生态系统呼吸减少,补偿了总初级生产力的下降。这支持了森林净碳吸收上限的理论,这是由于生态系统呼吸随原始初级生产力的变化而变化。

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