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Quasi-Stationary Convective Systems Forming Perpendicular to, Above the Cold Pool of, Strong Bow Echoes

机译:垂直于强弓回波上方的准平稳对流系统

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摘要

The accurate prediction of warm-season convective systems, and the heavy rainfall and severe weather associated with them, remains a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. This study looks at one such circumstance in which back-building convection forms perpendicular to, and above the cold pool region behind strong bow echoes. We refer to this phenomenon as a "bow and arrow" because, on radar imagery, the two convective lines resemble an archer's bow and arrow. The "arrow" can extend over hundreds of kilometers and can cause damage from high winds, hail and flooding. Events of this nature pose a particular challenge to forecast because they require an accurate forecast of the earlier convection and the effects of that convection on the environment. In this study, radar and surface observations of four events are presented to identify common environmental conditions prior to the development of the back-building convection. Additionally, simulations of three cases using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are analyzed in an attempt to understand the mechanisms responsible for initiating and maintaining the convective line. Due to coarse resolution, observational analyses are only useful for inspection of the synoptic-scale. Model output from numerical simulations is utilized to examine the mesoscale in the vicinity of the convective arrow. Several environmental characteristics are evident in each of the studied cases. Strong southwesterly flow (inducing warm air advection and gradual isentropic lifting), in addition to directional and speed convergence into the convective arrow region possibly contribute to convection initiation. Horizontal wind speed shear and increased wind speed in the area surrounding the arrow may be associated with the linear orientation of the arrow. It seems as though when these ingredients are combined with thermodynamic instability, there is a greater possibility of formation and maintenance of a convective arrow behind a bow echo.
机译:准确地预测暖季对流系统以及强降雨和与之相关的恶劣天气,仍然是数值天气预报模型所面临的挑战。这项研究着眼于这样一种情况,在这种情况下,背向对流在强弓形回波之后垂直于冷池区域并在其上方形成。我们将此现象称为“弓箭”,因为在雷达影像上,两条对流线类似于弓箭手的弓箭。 “箭头”可能会延伸数百公里,并可能因强风,冰雹和洪水而损坏。这种性质的事件对预测构成了特殊的挑战,因为它们需要对较早的对流及其对环境的影响进行准确的预测。在这项研究中,提出了对四个事件的雷达和地面观测,以在发展背对流之前确定常见的环境条件。此外,使用天气研究和预报(WRF)模型对三种情况的模拟进行了分析,以试图了解引发和维持对流线的机制。由于分辨率较粗,观测分析仅用于检查天气尺度。来自数值模拟的模型输出用于检查对流箭头附近的中尺度。在每个研究案例中,几个环境特征都是显而易见的。强烈的西南风(引起热空气对流和逐渐的等熵提升),除了方向和速度收敛到对流箭头区域外,还可能有助于对流的启动。箭头周围区域的水平风速剪切和增加的风速可能与箭头的线性方向相关。当这些成分与热力学不稳定性结合在一起时,在弓形回波后面形成和维持对流箭头的可能性更大。

著录项

  • 作者

    Keene Kelly M.;

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  • 年度 2011
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_US
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