Improved Medium- and Long-Term Runoff Forecasting Using a Multimodel Approach in the Yellow River Headwaters Region Based on Large-Scale and Local-Scale Climate Information

摘要

Medium- and long-term runoff forecasting is essential for hydropower generation and water resources coordinated regulation in the Yellow River headwaters region. Climate change has a great impact on runoff within basins, and incorporating different climate information into runoff forecasting can assist in creating longer lead-times in planning periods. In this paper, a multimodel approach was developed to further improve the accuracy and reliability of runoff forecasting fully considering of large-scale and local-scale climatic factors. First, with four large-scale atmospheric oscillations, sea surface temperature, precipitation, and temperature as the predictors, multiple linear regression (MLR), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), and support vector regression (SVR) models were built. Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA)-based multimodel was developed using weighted MLR, RBFNN, and SVR models, and the performance of the BMA-based multimodel was compared to those of the MLR, RBFNN, and SVR models. Finally, the high-runoff performance of these four models was further analyzed to prove the effectiveness of each model. The BMA-based multimodel performed better than those of the other models, as well as high-runoff forecasting. The results also revealed that the performance of the forecasting models with multiple climatic factors were generally superior to that without climatic factors. The BMA-based multimodel with climatic factors not only provides a promising, reliable method for medium- and long-term runoff forecasting, but also facilitates uncertainty estimation under different confidence intervals.