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Role of Feed-in Tariff Policy in Promoting Solar Photovoltaic Investments in Malaysia: A System Dynamics Approach

机译:上网电价政策在促进马来西亚太阳能光伏投资中的作用:系统动力学方法

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摘要

Solar photovoltaic has shown a significant rise in terms of worldwide installation. One of the main reason is due to the introduction of the FiT (feed-in tariff) policy by the governments. This paper aims to evaluate FiT policy in promoting solar PV (photovoltaic) investments in Malaysia by using a dynamic systems approach. The assessment model captures the complexities arising from the interaction of FiT rate dynamics, construction delays, and investors’ and technology learning dynamics in an integrated framework. The model provides total operational PV capacity, amount of finances needed to support the policy, and the cost of environmental savings, as output. Computer simulations, based on twelve scenarios, were used as a means to study the model behaviour. For the most favourable scenario, a total capacity of about 16 GW PV by 2050 can be expected, while for the least favourable scenario, expectations would be only about 10 GW. On the expenditure side, the most favourable scenario can cost up to MYR (Malaysia Ringgit) 15 billion, whereas, for the least favourable ones, the cost can be as low as MYR2 billion. The maximum cost of CO2 abatement can vary from MYR 0.05 per kg-CO2 to the lowest value of MYR 0.02 per kg-CO2.
机译:太阳能光伏在全球范围内的安装已显示出显着增长。主要原因之一是由于政府引入了上网电价补贴政策。本文旨在通过采用动态系统方法来评估FiT政策,以促进马来西亚的太阳能光伏(光伏)投资。评估模型捕获了在集成框架中由于FiT费率动态,施工延误以及投资者和技术学习动态的相互作用而引起的复杂性。该模型提供了总的运营PV容量,支持该政策所需的资金量以及作为输出的环保成本。基于十二种情况的计算机仿真被用作研究模型行为的一种手段。对于最有利的情况,可以预期到2050年的总容量PV约为16 GW,而对于最不利的情况,则期望仅为10 GW。在支出方面,最有利的方案的成本可能高达150亿林吉特,而最不理想的方案的成本则可能低至20亿林吉特。最高的二氧化碳减排成本可以从每公斤二氧化碳0.05令吉到最低每公斤0.02令吉。

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