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The role of task complexity in valuation errors analysis in a developing real estate market

机译:任务复杂性在发展中的房地产市场估值错误分析中的作用

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摘要

The real estate valuation literature on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) shows a growing concern over valuation errors, especially wide variation in valuations. Although there have been increased business and investment activities in the last decade or more in the region, these valuation errors pose a challenge to the maturity of SSA real estate markets as valuations promote transparency and support efficient operation of property markets. Based on archival and survey data, as well as insights from the task complexity discourse, this study examines the extent of variations in valuations and the effect of complex valuation tasks on the levels of the variations in Ghana. The study finds high levels of variations in valuation opinions of 33.6–63% for the archival and survey data, respectively. These levels of variations are substantially higher than have been reported in the literature for advanced markets suggesting that the concerns of valuation errors in SSA may be well grounded. Consistent with theory, it is further established that variations in valuation opinions may be more pronounced in comparatively more complex assignments. These findings have several implications including possible loss of confidence of market players in valuations, heightening of market uncertainty and increase in transaction costs.
机译:撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的房地产估值文献表明,估值误差越来越多,估值特别广泛。虽然在该地区的过去十年或更长期以来的业务和投资活动增加,但这些估值错误对SSA房地产市场的成熟度提出了批评,因为估值促进了透明度并支持房地产市场的有效运行。基于档案和调查数据,以及任务复杂性话语的见解,本研究审查了估值的变化程度和复杂估值任务对加纳变化水平的影响。该研究分别为档案和调查数据分别发现估值意见的高度估值意见水平为33.6-63%。这些变化水平显着高于在先进市场的文献中报告的,这表明SSA中估值误差的关注可能会很好地接地。与理论一致,进一步确定,在相对更复杂的任务中,估值意见的变化可能更加明显。这些调查结果具有若干含义,包括可能的市场参与者损失估值,提高市场不确定性并增加交易成本。

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