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Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

机译:全球范围气候作物产量关系及近期变暖的影响

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摘要

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation—spatial averages based on the locations of each crop—explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world’s six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale.
机译:全球主要作物生产的变化是食品价格,粮食安全和土地利用决策的重要司机。这些商品的平均全球产量是通过分布在一系列管理,土壤和气候制度的数百万个领域中的作物的性能决定。尽管全球粮食供应的复杂性,但在这里,我们表明,基于每作物的位置的季节温度和降水空间平均值的简单测量 - 解释全球平均产量的左右变化~30%或更多世界六种最广泛种植的作物。对于小麦,玉米和大麦,全球产量的显然负面反应增加了温度。基于这些敏感性和观察到的气候趋势,我们估计自1981年以来的变暖导致这三种作物的年联合损失,截至2002年,每年占每年约40公吨或50亿美元。虽然这些影响相对于技术收益率小。在同一时期,结果表明,在全球规模上已经表明了气候趋势对作物产量的负面影响。

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