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Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna

机译:基于曝光的风险评估和与埃特纳山大型泥浆的辐射相关的应急管理

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摘要

Fallout of ballistic blocks and bombs ejected from eruptive vents representsa well-known hazard in areasproximal to volcanoes (mostly <5 km from the vent). However, fallout of large clasts sedimenting fromplume margins that extend to medialareas and have the potential to produce severe injuries to people and causedamage to infrastructure, is often overlooked. Recent eruptive events atMount Etna (Italy) provide a clear example where large-clast fallout fromplume margins (>5 cm) has posed a real threat both to the manyvisitors reaching the summit area and to local infrastructure, and,therefore, has been selected as a case study. To quantify this hazard, a newparticle sedimentation model was calibrated with field data and then used forprobabilistic hazard assessments. For a fully probabilistic scenario thehazard zone covered 72 km2 and included some 125 km of paths androads, as well as 15 buildings. Evacuation on foot to a safe area wasestimated at almost 4 h, but this could be reduced to less than 3 h if twoshelters were provided. Our results show the importance of integratingprobabilistic hazard analysis of large-clast fallout within effectivestrategies of risk management and reduction, especially in the case ofvolcanoes where visitors can reach the summit areas.
机译:弹性块和炸弹从喷发通风口喷射出来的爆炸代表了对火山(距离通风口约5公里)的额外众所周知的危害。然而,从延伸到Medialareas的大型泥浆的外影沉淀到Medialareas的潜在潜在潜在忽视对基础设施产生严重的伤害。最近的爆发事件Atmount Etna(意大利)提供了一个明确的例子,其中大型夹住边距(> 5厘米)向达到峰会区域和本地基础设施的全面威胁构成了真正的威胁,因此已被选为案例研究。为了量化这一危险,用现场数据校准了一种新的沉降模型,然后使用了ForobabiListic危险评估。对于一个完全概率的情景,危险区域覆盖了72平方公里,包括大约125公里的路径和15千米,以及15栋建筑物。徒步到近4小时的安全区域疏散,如果提供拨打电动机,这可能会降低到小于3小时。我们的结果表明,在风险管理和减少的有效性易格术中,在风险管理和减少的有效性中,尤其是游客可以到达峰会领域的案例,其结果表明了对大型侵略性的危害分析。

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