Capacity Prediction Model Based on Limited Priority Gap-Acceptance Theory at Multilane Roundabouts

摘要

Capacity is an important design parameter for roundabouts, and it is the premise of computing their delay and queue. Roundabout capacity has been studied for decades, and empirical regression model and gap-acceptance model are the two main methods to predict it. Based on gap-acceptance theory, by considering the effect of limited priority, especially the relationship between limited priority factor and critical gap, a modified model was built to predict the roundabout capacity. We then compare the results between Raff’s method and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, and the MLE method was used to predict the critical gaps. Finally, the predicted capacities from different models were compared, with the observed capacity by field surveys, which verifies the performance of the proposed model.