Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploitation Observations from VIIRS NTL Images: Analyzing the Intensity Changes and Development Trends in the South China Sea from 2012 to 2019

摘要

The South China Sea is rich in hydrocarbon resources and has been exploited for decades by countries around it. However, little is known about the hydrocarbon exploitation (HE) activities in the South China Sea in recent years, especially its intensity changes and development trends. Here, a long-time series of monthly Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) nighttime light (NTL)images were applied to observe and analyze the HE dynamics in the South China Sea from 2012 to 2019. A target recognition method combining feature increment strategy and random forest model was proposed to obtain the spatial distribution of offshore HE targets, with an average comprehensive precision of 94.44%. Then, a spatio-temporal statistical analysis was carried out on the intensity changes and development trends of HE activities. The results showed that: (1) From 2012 to 2019, the quantity of HE targets in the South China Sea has increased from 215 to 310, from rapid to stable increasing taking 2014 as a turning point. (2) The distribution density of HE targets increases year by year, with the maximum density reaching 59/ 10,000 Km2, and with the most significant increase in the new hydrocarbon-bearing fields close to the deep-sea. (3) The quantity of HE targets shallower than -300m has been increasing with years, but showing a decreasing proportion trend, falling from 96.7% in 2012 to 94.2% of the total in 2019. (4) After 2015, the exploitation core of most hydrocarbon-bearing basins began to shift from shallow-sea to deep-sea, with gradually increasing exploitation depth, among which the maximum depth reaching −1580 m. Against the background of the changes in international crude oil prices and the vigorous development of deep-sea HE, this research provides important information and methodological references for the formulation and analysis of offshore hydrocarbon resource exploitation strategies.