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Deep-Learning Prediction Model with Serial Two-Level Decomposition Based on Bayesian Optimization

机译:基于贝叶斯优化的串行双层分解的深度学习预测模型

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摘要

The power load prediction is significant in a sustainable power system, which is the key to the energy system’s economic operation. An accurate prediction of the power load can provide a reliable decision for power system planning. However, it is challenging to predict the power load with a single model, especially for multistep prediction, because the time series load data have multiple periods. This paper presents a deep hybrid model with a serial two‐level decomposition structure. First, the power load data are decomposed into components; then, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network, with the Bayesian optimization parameters, is used as the subpredictor for each component. Last, the predictions of different components are fused to achieve the final predictions. The power load data of American Electric Power (AEP) were used to verify the proposed predictor. The results showed that the proposed prediction method could effectively improve the accuracy of power load prediction.
机译:可持续电力系统中的功率负荷预测是显着的,这是能源系统经济运行的关键。电源负荷的精确预测可以提供电力系统规划的可靠决策。然而,预测单个模型的功率负载是挑战,特别是对于多步测预测,因为时间序列负载数据具有多个时段。本文提出了一种深度混合模型,具有串行双级分解结构。首先,电力负载数据被分解成组件;然后,使用贝叶斯优化参数的门控复发单元(GRU)网络用作每个组件的子预测器。最后,融合不同组件的预测以实现最终预测。美国电力(AEP)的电力负荷数据用于验证所提出的预测因子。结果表明,该预测方法可以有效地提高功率负荷预测的准确性。

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