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Essays on income taxation and idiosyncratic risk.

机译:所得税和特殊风险的论文。

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摘要

I study the role of heterogeneity and idiosyncratic risk in Macroeconomics, and their implications on problems of income taxation. In the first chapter, I study the effects of redistributive taxation in an incomplete market economy with heterogeneous agents and idiosyncratic risk. I focus on the role of distortions in labor supply decisions and the interplay of heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks, conducting the first general equilibrium analysis of a Negative Income Tax (NIT). I show that a NIT is a serious candidate to replace the current income tax in the United States. I find that the optimal NIT has a marginal tax rate of 28% and a transfer of 10% of per capita GDP, roughly $4600.The welfare gains of replacing the current US income tax with a NIT are equivalent to a 6.3% increase in annual consumption in every state of the world. Low-ability agents, in the bottom quintile of the productivity distribution, benefit the most, while high-ability agents are worse off. A consequence of the reform is that the composition of the labor force changes, with high-productivity agents working more, in relative terms, than low-productivity agents. Finally, I find that the riskier the economy, the higher the welfare gains of the NIT as a provider of public insurance.In the second chapter, I study labor income dynamics over the life cycle and introduce a novel methodology that can detect the presence of patterns in the idiosyncratic earnings shocks and recognize economic forces in action. Using a sample from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I estimate a Bayesian Logistic Smoothed Transition Autoregressive model of order 1 (LSTAR(1)) with a rich level of heterogeneity in the innovations. I find that there is a life-cycle pattern in the earning shocks: before the age 29, young workers experience shocks with higher variance and a positive probability of lower persistence than older workers. A comparison with conventional models shows that an incorrect model specification introduces bias in the estimates. The proposed model can be easily approximated with a discrete Markov process. This means that this model can be used by macroeconomists to calibrate income processes.
机译:我研究的异质性和非系统风险在宏观经济学上的收入税问题中的作用,以及它们的含义。在第一章,我研究的再分配税收的不完全市场经济与异质个体与异质性风险的影响。我专注于扭曲的劳动力供给决策的作用和异质性和不可保异质性冲击的相互作用,在进行负所得税(NIT)的第一个一般均衡分析。我表明,NIT是一个严重的候选人,以取代目前的所得税在美国。我发现,最佳的NIT有28%的边际税率和人均国内生产总值10%的转让,以NIT替换当前美国所得税的大约$ 4600.The福利收益相当于每年增长6.3%消费世界的每一个状态。低能力的代理商,在生产力布局的底部五分之一,受益最大,而高能力的试剂是更糟。改革的一个后果是,劳动力的组成发生变化,高效率的工作代理商更多,相对而言,比低生产率剂。最后,我发现,对经济的风险更大,NIT的福利收益为公众insurance.In第二章供应商,整个生命周期的I期研究劳动收入动态越高,引入新的方法,可以检测的存在在异质收益震荡格局,并承认在行动中的经济力量。使用从收入动态追踪研究(PSID)的样本,我估计的1阶(LSTAR(1))贝叶斯物流平滑过渡自回归模型的异质性创新丰富的层次。我发现有在收入冲击的生命周期模式:在29岁之前,青年工人的经验与冲击方差较高和较低的持久性比老员工概率为正。与传统的模型示出了比较的是一个不正确的模型规范引入在估计偏置。该模型可以用离散的马尔科夫过程很容易接近。这意味着,该模型可以通过宏观经济学家被用来校准收入流程。

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