Climatic Disasters and armed intrastate conflict : A quantitative analysis assessing how abrupt hydrometeorological disasters affect the risk of conflict termination, covering the years 1985 to 2007

摘要

This thesis covers the relatively unstudied connection between hydrometeorological disastersand the duration of armed intrastate conflict, and aims to discover how abrupt climatechanges affect the prospects for conflict termination. By performing several Weibulldistributedsurvival models, it specifically examines the effects of the rapid-onset climaticdisasters floods, windstorms, waves, and extreme temperatures on the risk of conflicttermination. The central hypothesis leans on a number of theoretical arguments holding thatdisasters have the capacity to act as catalysts for peace. The results of the analysis dohowever indicate that disasters reduce the risk of conflict termination, but with the caveat thatthis effect might reverse with time. With somewhat indistinct empirical results, the thesis fallsin line with existing research on the topic arguing that closer, more disaggregated analyses ofthe mechanisms at play between climatic disasters and conflict dynamics are in demand.