Trade externalities of anti-dumping duties in the salmon industry : Do changes in the U.S. average AD duty on fresh and chilled Atlantic salmon from Norway lead to trade diversion, product trade diversion and trade deflection within the period 1988 to 2011?

摘要

This thesis examines three trade externalities associated with the use of antidumping (AD) measures by the U.S. on fresh and chilled Atlantic salmon from Norway. This is performed by analyzing the relationship between the U.S. AD duties on fresh and chilled salmon from Norway and Norwegian exports of fresh salmon as well as the U.S. imports of salmon over within the period of 1988-2011.We first investigate the trade diversion effect of the U.S. AD duties on U.S. imports of fresh and chilled salmon. We then analyze the product trade diversion on U.S. imports from Norway as a result of the U.S. AD measures. Finally, the trade deflection effect of the U.S. AD measures on Norwegian exports to third countries is examined.We find trade diversion from Chile and Canada within the U.S. salmon market resulting from U.S. AD measures on Norwegian salmon. The model estimates about 300 tonnes on average of U.S. fresh and chilled salmon imports from Norway assumed to be destroyed appears to be replaced by Chile and Canada. We fail to find evidence for an increase in U.S. imports of other salmon products from Norway. However, we document that 7 % of Norwegian exports on average of fresh salmon assumed to be destructed have supposedly deflected to a non-U.S. export market.The findings suggest that there are no trade externalities associated with the reviews and changes of the U.S. AD duties, meaning that the trade externalities result from the initial imposition of the AD measures. With regards to the effectiveness of the U.S. policy on Norwegian fresh and chilled salmon, the U.S. domestic production has not expanded in a large degree. Thus, we conclude that the U.S. AD measures associated with the salmon industry do not seem to be effective.