This paper proposes and analyses a new demand response technique for renewable energy regulation using smart hot water heaters that forecast water consumption at an individual dwelling level. Distributed thermal energy storage has many advantages, including high overall efficiency, use of existing infrastructure and a distributed nature. In addition, the use of a smart thermostatic controller enables the prediction of required water amounts and keeps temperatures at a level that minimises user discomfort while reacting to variations in the electricity network. Three cases are compared in this paper, normal operation, operation with demand response and operation following the proposed demand response mechanism that uses consumption forecasts. The results show that this technique can produce both up and down regulation, as well as increase water heater efficiency. When controlling water heaters without consumption forecast, the users experience discomfort in the form of hot water shortage, but after the full technique is applied, the shortage level drops to nearly the starting point. The amount of regulation power from a single dwelling is also discussed in this paper.
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