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Short term power load forecasting using Deep Neural Networks

机译:使用深度神经网络进行短期电力负荷预测

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摘要

Accurate load forecasting greatly influences the planning processes undertaken in operation centres of energy providers that relate to the actual electricity generation, distribution, system maintenance as well as electricity pricing. This paper exploits the applicability of and compares the performance of the Feed-forward Deep Neural Network (FF-DNN) and Recurrent Deep Neural Network (R-DNN) models on the basis of accuracy and computational performance in the context of time-wise short term forecast of electricity load. The herein proposed method is evaluated over real datasets gathered in a period of 4 years and provides forecasts on the basis of days and weeks ahead. The contribution behind this work lies with the utilisation of a time-frequency (TF) feature selection procedure from the actual “raw” dataset that aids the regression procedure initiated by the aforementioned DNNs. We show that the introduced scheme may adequately learn hidden patterns and accurately determine the short-term load consumption forecast by utilising a range of heterogeneous sources of input that relate not necessarily with the measurement of load itself but also with other parameters such as the effects of weather, time, holidays, lagged electricity load and its distribution over the period. Overall, our generated outcomes reveal that the synergistic use of TF feature analysis with DNNs enables to obtain higher accuracy by capturing dominant factors that affect electricity consumption patterns and can surely contribute significantly in next generation power systems and the recently introduced SmartGrid.
机译:准确的负荷预测会极大地影响能源提供商运营中心进行的计划过程,这些过程与实际的发电,配电,系统维护以及电价有关。本文在时态短时上下文的准确性和计算性能的基础上,利用前馈深层神经网络(FF-DNN)和递归深层神经网络(R-DNN)模型的适用性并对其性能进行了比较。电力负荷的长期预测。本文提出的方法是根据4年内收集的真实数据集进行评估的,并根据未来几天和几周提供预测。这项工作背后的贡献在于利用了来自实际“原始”数据集的时频(TF)特征选择程序,该程序有助于上述DNN发起的回归程序。我们表明,引入的方案可以通过利用一定范围的异构输入源来充分学习隐藏模式并准确确定短期负荷消耗预测,这些输入源不一定与负荷本身的度量有关,而且与其他参数(例如负荷的影响)相关天气,时间,节假日,滞后电力负荷及其在此期间的分布。总体而言,我们产生的结果表明,将TF特征分析与DNN协同使用可以通过捕获影响电力消耗模式的主导因素来获得更高的准确性,并且可以肯定地对下一代电力系统和最近推出的SmartGrid做出重大贡献。

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