Correlation Between Hurricane Sandy Damage Along the New Jersey Coast with Land Use, Dunes and Other Local Attributes.

摘要

The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of sand dunes along New Jerseys Coast in reducing damage during Sandy. The study area included eight selected zones with different damage levels from Ocean County. A model to independently predict the damage level was built from the literature and field observations. We used a classification of the damage developed by an independent group, which had classified the damage at 89 blocks by the beach in Ocean County, New Jersey into severe, moderate, low and none. LIDAR data and site visits were used to measure dune attributes, such as height and width, as well as type of land use beyond the beach (boardwalk, building). Statistical analyses, mainly ordered logistic regression and multiple linear regression, were used to estimate the relationships among damage and the predictors. The analysis shows that dunes reduced the likelihood of damage during Hurricane Sandy. Dune width, dune crest height, height of the structure, proximity to structure and type of the structure were the strongest predictors that appeared to have decreased the negative impacts of the storm. In contrast, tall structures on the land were more likely to be severely damaged. Our pilot test accurately classified 81% of the sites that had severe to low damage into the category that had been chosen by the independent group.