Evaluating Current and Alternative Methods to Produce 2010 County Population Estimates.

摘要

The U.S. Census Bureau produces estimates of the total population at the national, state, county, and subcounty levels, and total housing unit estimates are provided at the state and county levels. Population estimates are also produced by demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) for the nation, states, and counties. The estimates are used for the distribution of federal funds by state and local governments, and as controls for Census Bureau and other surveys. As part of an ongoing effort to improve the accuracy of these estimates, the Census Bureau undertook a comprehensive research effort to evaluate both its current methods and alternative methods. This effort included research from experts internal and external to the Census Bureau. The results of this research will inform methodological decisions for the decade after the 2010 Census by providing information that will help answer the five questions below. This paper examines the accuracy of the Administrative Records (ADREC) method, which is currently used by the Census Bureau to produce county-level population estimates, and several alternative series of housing unit-based population estimates.