How Well Does the Fed Forecast the Treasury's Balance at the Fed. Working Paper Series.

摘要

As part of the Fed's operating procedure, each day, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Governors, and the Treasury make forecasts of the Treasury's balance at the Fed. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate these forecasts. We find that these agencies do a very good job of forecasting the Treasury's balance and that each agency's forecast contributes significantly to the optimal forecast. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the optimal forecast could not be improved by using an econometric model of the Treasury's balance. In addition, we find that the Fed appears to have done a good job incorporating these forecast into it daily operating procedure.