Expected Changes in Transportation Demand in Virginia by 2025

摘要

The VTRANS 2025 Technical Committee, composed of representatives from the Virginia Association of Planning District Commissions, the Virginia Port Authority, the Virginia Department of Aviation, the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation, and the Virginia Department of Transportation, asked the Virginia Transportation Research Council to identify trends that may influence transportation demand by 2025. These trends include socioeconomic projections, such as changes in population, employment, and income; policy-related projections pertaining to technology and legislation; and aggregate freight demand. The committee also asked how transportation demand was expected to change by 2025 for passenger travel and freight travel. The answer is that the demand for both freight and passenger travel is expected to grow. Almost all sources of passenger transportation demand (increasing population, increasing employment, increasing income, increasing passenger vehicle miles traveled, and decreasing household sizes) suggest more travel. Projections for freight transportation, including additional business at the Port of Virginia, more commodity flows for the eastern corridor, and an emphasis on modes that deliver speed and reliability, indicate that freight travel will increase substantially. The effect of this increasing transportation demand is that the transportation challenges expected in 2025 will be similar to those faced today but will be greater in magnitude.