Nuclear Risk Assessment: Central Asia after Independence

摘要

This paper seeks to examine, from a proliferation standpoint, the nuclear situation in the Central Asian region of the former Soviet Union, i.e., the five republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. From a nuclear perspective, Kazakhstan by far outweighs the other four republics so emphasis has been given to the situation in Kazakhstan. After this introduction, the report tries to give the reader a short introduction to the current political situation in the five Central Asian republics. The third section contains the evolution of a nuclear weapons policy after independence, a summary of the participation of the Central Asian republics in international nuclear non-proliferation regimes, and the development towards a nuclear-weapon-free zone in Central Asia. The fourth section of the review is devoted to a comprehensive inventory of nuclear facilities. In the fifth and final section, a risk analysis for diversions of nuclear material, equipment, and expertise from Central Asia is presented. To be able to do that, incidents of illicit nuclear trafficking that have occurred in Central Asia, existing international programs to support former weapons scientists, and the ownership of nuclear facilities are discussed.