Alternative Measures of U.S. Economic Activity in Business Cycles and Business Cycle Dating

摘要

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has determined that there have been 10 recessions since WW-II. The first was in 1948-49, and the most recent was in 2001. In recent years, the dating committee has primarily relied on four monthly indicator measures of economic performance to determine cyclical peaks and troughs; the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' monthly index of industrial production, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimates of monthly payroll employment. BEA's monthly estimates of real manufacturing and trade sales, and BEA's monthly estimates of real personal income less current transfers. In addition, the committee 'places considerable weight on the estimates of real GDP' and also 'looks at monthly estimates of real GDP, such as those prepared by Macroeconomic Advisers' The NBER-determined cyclical peaks and troughs are the primary reference points in this review. Although some analysts have suggested somewhat different timing for cycles, and even whether cycles occurred-particularly in the pre-WW-I era-this review finds no reason for revising the timing of the NBER post-WW-II cyclical peaks and troughs.