Sweden and the NEGP: A Pilot Study of the North European Gas Pipeline and Sweden's Dependence on Russian Energy

摘要

The aim of this pilot study is to elucidate on the North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) and Swedens increasing dependence on Russian energy. A subsidiary aim is to outline a set of concerns that have bearing on the situation for the EU and Baltic Sea Region and that needs to be further addressed. The conclusions are that the NEGP will enhance Russias direct leverage on Poland, Ukraine, Belarus as itwill allow Russia to turn off gas supplies without affecting exports to other parts of Europe. Russia will also increase its leverage over the states that become connected to the NEGP (Germany, and possibly Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK). The security dimensions of the NEGP are further under-assessed even in international comparisons and there are numerous uncertainties concerning the consequences and impact. Publicly available information is not exhaustive and the magnitude of the problems and frictions that may arouse in the regional context are unknown and must be further addressed.