Using Standard Anomaly and Ensemble Data to Support Forecast Confidence of an Extreme Wind Event in the Pacific Northwest on December 14th-15th, 2006

摘要

The difference of any meteorological variable from its climatological mean is the anomaly. Divide this anomaly value by the standard deviation and youve got a standard or normalized anomaly (Hart and Grumm). Model forecast anomalies of this type are provided by NCEP on their website and referred to as standard anomalies. Forecasters can use this normalized or standard anomaly data to help gauge the magnitude of an advertised weather event with respect to historical occurrence. This paper provides an example of using normalized anomaly and ensemble data to assist in forecasting a strong wind event that occurred across Oregon and Washington and the adjacent coastal waters on December 14th-15th, 2006.