Performance of MaxT, MinT, and Td Model Guidance for Extreme Southwestern California for December 2007 through January 2008

摘要

The intent of this effort was to provide forecasters information on the performance of selected model inputs to MaxT, MinT, and Td forecasts during the cool season and to evaluate the performance of these inputs relative to the official forecasts. This two month period (Dec. 2007 Jan. 2008) was characterized by alternating periods of drier, offshore flow and moist onshore flow, sometimes with precipitation. This is quite typical of the winter season in Southern California. Without a consistent, dominant pattern, bias correction would be expected to perform poorer than during times of the year with a more persistent pattern. Models evaluated included DGEX, ECMWF, GFS40, MOSGuide, NAM12, SREF, WRF (local workstation WRF model run at 4-km horizontal resolution with NAM12 boundary conditions), and their respective bias-corrected (BC) forecasts.