Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, September 2009: Broiler Production Estimated To Increase in 2010

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Despite slightly lower second-half pork production, hog prices will likely remain below year-ago levels for the balance of 2009. The U.S. broiler meat production estimate for third-quarter 2009 was increased by 100 million pounds to 9.15 billion pounds, down 3.2 percent from third-quarter 2008. The United States is expected to import 13 percent more beef than last year. However, imports from Australia have fallen from earlier in the year, as Australians have incrementally recovered some of their markets that were affected by the global financial crisis and recession. U.S. beef exports are expected to fall 8 percent in 2009, as strong sales in the third quarter of 2008 are not expected to be matched this year. Despite the favorable grazing season and crop outlook, current livestock price levels will keep positive profit margins elusive for the near term. Persistent milk production, despite low, recessionary domestic demand and slow exports, is the basis for continued low prices this year. Recovery in prices is unlikely until 2010, when the decline in milk production, forecast for later this year and next, will impact the market. The cheese market is showing more strength than other major dairy products.