Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, November 2009: Volatility in Cattle and Beef Prices Expected To Continue Well into 2010

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Placements of cattle on feed, cool-season pasture conditions, and other factors imply volatility in beef production and, likely, prices for cattle and beef well into 2010. Live cattle imports have been lower in 2009 due to weak U.S. prices for feeder and fed cattle. Rising world demand for dairy products and lower than expected milk production, both internationally and in the United States, lead to tightening stocks and rising milk prices for the remainder of 2009 and into 2010. Broiler production in fourth-quarter 2009 is forecast at 8.95 billion pounds, up only 1 percent from the previous year, but the first year-over-year increase in production after four consecutive quarterly declines. USDA raised fourth-quarter prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent hogs to $36-$38 per hundredweight (cwt), on tightening supplies of animals from a lower spring pig crop and sharply lower imports of live Canadian swine. Thirdquarter U.S. exports were 1.02 billion pounds, 10 percent below the same period a year ago.